The Power of Silence?
Opinion Contagion and the Surprise of the Polish
2005 Parliamentary and Presidential Elections
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1
Eötvös Loránd University
2
Gdańsk University of Technology
Publication date: 2009-03-30
Polish Sociological Review 2009;165(1):123-138
KEYWORDS
ABSTRACT
This paper investigates opinion contagion in collective behaviour using threshold model (Granovetter
(1978)). The theoretical background is the spiral of silence concept developed by Noelle-Neumann
(1974), arguing that people only assert their opinions if they perceive a minimal support from a relevant
proportion of others. We apply the model to explain the dispersion between pre-elections preferences
and the final results of the Polish parliamentary and presidential elections in 2005. It is shown that the
minority opinions were more widely-held than was declared in opinion polls as a consequence of different
distributions of the threshold values of opinion assertion.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We would like to thank Arfon Rees for valuable advice and suggestions as well
two anonymous referees.This paper has benefited from comments by participants of the Max Weber Multidisciplinary Workshop held on 9 April 2008 at European University Institute in Florence.